Forecast: Warm, But Don't Count Out More Snow This Winter

While the weekend has been rather wind-whipped, the brunt of the cold has eased a fair bit across the region and a mild stretch will ensue this week.

It won’t be shorts weather every day, but we will nudge into the 50s on Monday and then again starting on Thursday.  Sixty-degree highs are pretty likely on Friday and perhaps on Saturday as we get a surge of warmth ahead of a cold front that crosses the region during Saturday and slaps us back into “reality.”

Such warm runs are not uncommon to our climate, especially as daylight length increases over the coming weeks. For them, we can partially thank our geographic location as a west-southwest wind can warm us as it nudges downhill off of the Appalachians.

The upcoming warm wave is brought to us by such a scenario, as high pressure will park over the Southeast, flex its muscles, and push warmth across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front that will slide down from Canada at week’s end.

Such warmth will wane, however, and it will probably snow again before winter is out.

February is a fickle month weather-wise and these warm ups are the first teases of spring in our region. Over the last 30 years, Philadelphia has had at least one day where the temperature has hit 60 in 22 of those Februaries, most recently in 2009.

For Pottstown, the last ten years have seen it happen five times (Philly’s 2001-2010 track record is 7 years with a 60-degree day in February). In Philly, those 22 Februaries that had some sort of “warm wave” also featured some sort of snow before the end of winter, whether it amounts to a trace of snow or—in the case of 2009—a nine-inch snowstorm to usher in March.  

Turnabout can be fast, furious, and Ma Nature can show a proverbial nasty streak in how quickly the worm turns. Feb. 27, 2009 was 63 degrees in Pottstown, and three days later the last flakes of a nine-inch event were falling. Taking it a step further in time, March 14, 2007 featured 80 degrees in Pottstown and many of us showing off or winter “tanless” look while jogging or walking around.

Two days later, the “Ice of March” occurred and the region was scraping off several inches of sleet.  These are more extreme examples to the rule, however, but the lesson is to not write off winter just yet. 

In the wake of next Saturday’s frontal boundary, we’ll likely drop back towards average high temperatures in the low 40s but the odds of a nine-inch snowstorm or a marathon of sleet are highly unlikely. However, volatility and mood swings from Mother Nature are definitely likely over the next eight to 10 weeks as we now officially begin the march towards warmth.

Tom Thunstrom is a resident of Royersford and the creator of Phillyweather.net.